Political Issues for the Twenty First Century by Morland Dave & Cowling Mark

Author:Morland Dave & Cowling Mark [Dave, Morland & Mark, Cowling]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780754619031
Google: tQiDAAAAMAAJ
Barnesnoble:
Goodreads: 1338792
Publisher: Ashgate
Published: 2004-01-15T12:23:14+00:00

Demographics

Two issues need to be considered under this heading. The big issue is whether demographic shifts might not spell the end of Northern Ireland altogether. In the 2001 census, 40.26 per cent (1991: 38.4 per cent) of the population of Northern Ireland regarded themselves as Catholic, 45.57 per cent (1991: 50.6 per cent) as Protestant while 13.88 per cent (1991: 11.1) professed no religion or refused to say. Sadly Jedi were at under 1 per cent (http://www.nisra.gov.Uk/census/pdf/Key%20Statistics%20ReportTables.pdf). Catholic numbers are plainly rising, although estimates they could hit 51 per cent by 2011 look on the high side. Thus the peace strategy involves telling Sinn Fein supporters to ‘go home and bonk’, and the current peace process could be seen as a gentle way of preparing the Unionist population for united Ireland achieved by referendum in the foreseeable future.

This simple scenario begs four important questions. To start with, people across Europe have been reproducing less in recent years, probably because opportunities other than motherhood have opened up for women. Why should Northern Ireland’s Catholics be immune from this trend? Further, Northern Ireland Catholics have outbred the Protestants ever since the founding of the state. Conditions in Northern Ireland have been harsher for Catholics than for Protestants, while emigration has been relatively easy, helped by the diaspora that started with the famine, and a higher rate of Catholic emigration has largely counteracted their higher birthrate.

Third, the scenario assumes that being a Catholic means you vote for a united Ireland. It is difficult to get a grip on this issue through opinion polls. The big problem is what assumptions people have in mind when they answer. A Catholic might favour a united Ireland if it could be achieved with no bloodshed and with no economic sacrifice, and therefore answer ‘yes’ at the level of ultimate ideals. However, realistically a united Ireland might meet with armed resistance from the Protestants among Northern Ireland’s 100,000 licensed shotgun holders, and from members of the police, police reserve and Royal Irish Regiment who managed to retain their weapons. Levels of violence could be considerable. What is more, the security forces might now be reduced to the small Irish army, and the rules of engagement would allow loyalist gunmen to fire from crowds and urban locations, confident that a vigorous response would lead to civilian casualties. What would happen to the £4 billion annual subvention that Northern Ireland currently receives from the British exchequer? Even given the rate of growth of the Irish economy in recent years, it would cripple the Celtic tiger to match it. One cannot simply assume, therefore, that Catholics would automatically vote for a united Ireland in realistic circumstances. For what they are worth, opinion polls back up this reasoning. For example, Duffy and Evans found that whereas under 10 per cent of Protestants favoured a United Ireland, only around 60 per cent of Catholics supported this, with some 25 per cent of Catholics wanting to remain part of the UK (for details see Dowds, Devine and Breen, 1997 - see http://cain.

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